Today's the day

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A few hours from now, we'll be able to dispatch with all the speculation and wonder surrounding the NCAA slate. Until then, here's my last bit of prognostication.

As David points out, the Quakers look locked into a 15 seed. Maybe if Wyoming could have held onto its four-point lead with a minute to play in overtime last night, things would be different. Then again, guarding Scott Greenman of Princeton as he streaked up the floor and dished off the game-winner a week ago would have made that irrelevant. Here's a look at some potential 2-15 matchups in order of most to least favorable (RPI in parenthesis):

No. 2 UCLA (8): Ben Howland's crew deserves a two for winning the Pac-10 Tournament in dominant fashion. The Bruins are a good matchup for Penn because they are small and guard-heavy. Aaron Afflalo and Jordan Farmar make up one of the finest backcourts in the country, but guard defense has been Penn's biggest strength this season. Also, the Pac-10 champs are thin inside. Sure Luc Richard Mbah A Moute (say that 10 times fast) will have a field day with Mark Zoller and Steve Danley, but he can't carry the team by himself.

No. 2 Gonzaga (9): Plenty of pundits have dropped the Zags to a three, but it's hard to deny a team that's won 17 straight and lost to only Connecticut (by two) Washington (by four) and Memphis. I've watched just about every Zags game this season and can tell you they are vulnerable, but extremely deep. Their ninth man off the bench (Josh Heytvelt) could start for most teams in the country. Point guard Derek Raivio has been in a funk of late, but Adam Morrison and J.P. Batista are the one-two punch that keeps this team winning. Penn lacks the personnel to contain either of them -- certainly not both.

No. 2 Ohio State (5): The Buckeyes should be a two regardless of what happens today against Iowa in the Big Ten title game. I saw them at the Palestra earlier this season against St. Joe's, and while they have improved greatly since then, they are beatable -- But not by Penn. If Thad Matta's team has an off night shooting, they will struggle against a team with good guards. Indiana had a chance yesterday when Ohio State shot 5-of-27 from three, but the Buckeyes have too many long-range weapons (Shillinger, Foster, Butler and Sylvester) who would all have a significant height advantage over any Penn guards. Throw in Terrance Dials down low, and Penn doesn't have a shot.

No. 2 Texas (7): The Longhorns beat Kansas (one of the best defensive teams in the Big 12) by 25 two weeks ago. This team can be as dominant as any in the country, but it can also play down to its opponent -- just ask Texas A&M. Penn, however, doesn't match up well with anyone here. Rick Barnes' gang is big, quick and very physical. They are capable of beating the Quakers by 40 even if they are not at 100 percent.

A few more two-seeds: North Caroina (12) see Texas above -- Tar Heels at 100 m.p.h. present an impossible task for Penn. Illinois (14) is beatable if Ibrahim Jaaber can stay on top of Dee Brown and the Quakers can rebound with James Augustine. Pitt (11) with seven losses doesn't deserve a two-seed, and would dominate Penn down low.

One last case: A handful of teams ahead of Penn in the RPI may not be guaranteed a spot ahead of the Quakers on the S-curve. Here are a few with less than stellar credentials:

- PENN (98): 19-8 vs. 173 SOS, 0-3 vs. top-50, 1-3 vs. 51-100, 6-2 vs. 101-200, 12-1 vs. 201+, 7-6 vs. 55 non-conf SOS
- Murray State (64): 23-6 vs. 192 SOS, no top-100 wins, 3-3 non conference
- Montana (60): 21-6 vs. 186 SOS, 1-1 vs. top 100, 228 non-conf SOS
- Northwestern St. (67): 21-7 vs. 201 SOS, 1 top-100 win, 4-6 non-conf
- Winthrop (73): 21-7 vs. 193 SOS, win over Marquette (36), four losses vs 100+

Considering Penn's history in the NCAAs (appearances in six of the last eight) there's a chance of moving up on any of these four, but that's a stretch. Sure, Princeton AD Gary Walters, who is on the selection committee, saw Penn's putrid first half last week at Jadwin Gym. But he also saw the Quakers' 18-point comeback, indicative of what they are capable of. We'll see what happens tonight at six.