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After a disappointing 2023-2024 campaign, Penn Men's Basketball hopes to build upon the sparks of last year's Villanova upset victory. 

Credit: Weining Ding

Last season, Penn men’s basketball suffered one of its most statistically dismal campaigns in program history, finishing with an 11-18 overall record that included a 3-11 clip in the Ivy League. But amid the doldrums, the Quakers delivered the ultimate highlight: a stunning upset victory over Big 5 rival Villanova, causing fans to storm the Palestra court and giving Penn its first victory over the powerhouse Wildcats since 2018.

Now, although the start of the college basketball season is still months away, the Red and Blue’s Big 5 slate is set once again. Let’s take a look at the factors that could define each matchup.

Nov. 15 against St. Joseph’s

After making history as the inaugural champions of the Big 5 Classic, St. Joe’s enters 2024 with abounding expectations. Last season’s Hawks won nine of their first 11 games, and though they ultimately finished their Atlantic 10 schedule with a middling 9-9 record and fell short of March Madness, the team still went 21-14 overall (their first winning season since 2016) and earned a berth to the National Invitational Tournament.

The Hawks will look for further improvement with much of last year’s core still intact. Guard Erik Reynolds II finished fourth in the Atlantic 10 with 17.3 points per game, while guard Xzayvier Brown ranked second on the team in both scoring and assists and took home the Atlantic 10 Rookie of the Year award. St. Joe’s also added former Harvard forward Justice Ajogbor in the transfer portal, who averaged nearly three blocks a game for the Crimson last season and scored 16 points in the Crimson’s win over Penn on Feb. 24.

In last season’s matchup against Penn, Reynolds shot 4-for-13 from the field for the Hawks while Brown attempted only four shots. But St. Joe’s poor offensive performance was outdone by Penn’s, who saw just one player — then-senior guard Clark Slajchert — score more than eight points, resulting in a 69-61 loss. Now, Slajchert is gone, as is Penn’s second-leading scorer Tyler Perkins.

In their place is a bevy of fresh transfer talent. Former Patriot League Rookie of the Year and rising Penn junior Ethan Roberts should be an instant spark plug, as should Mercer transfer and rising junior Michael Zanoni. Additionally, while Ajogbor stifled rising senior forward Nick Spinoso in the early going of their matchup in February, Spinoso rebounded to finish with 18 points and nearly led the Quakers to a comeback victory.

The Hawks will enter this year’s matchup against Penn as the favorites, and it’s unlikely they will shoot as poorly as they did a year ago. But if Penn’s guards can replicate Slajchert’s success and Spinoso can generate consistent offense against Ajogbor, the Quakers could take the matchup.

Nov. 19 at Villanova

Much of the euphoria surrounding last season’s upset over Villanova stemmed from the allure of the Wildcats program — under former coach Jay Wright, Villanova established itself as one of the premier programs in college basketball, winning two national championships in 2016 and 2018.

But under new coach Kyle Neptune, the Wildcats have regressed. After a 17-17 finish in 2023, Villanova was ranked as high at No. 18 in last season’s AP poll but fell out after suffering losses to St. Joe’s and Drexel and finishing last in the Big 5. The Wildcats finished 18-16, a one-game improvement from the season before but still a far cry from the program’s institutional success.

Two of Villanova’s three highest-minute players last season — guard Justin Moore and guard TJ Bamba — are out the door, though forward Eric Dixon, the team’s leading scorer, and guard Mark Armstrong, the leading assist man, remain. In the place of the departed talent is another blue-chip recruiting class featuring a pair of four-star freshmen, and of course, Penn’s very own Perkins.

Penn’s last win over Villanova marked something of a breakout for Perkins. His 22 points led all scorers, and his clutch free-throw shooting down the stretch seemed to signal the beginning of a new Quakers legend. Now, after breaking Penn’s freshman scoring record, Perkins has taken his talents across town. Perkins is one of a select few cases in the history of college basketball, in that his transfer weakened Penn and simultaneously bolstered the roster of a bitter rival.

Schematically, Penn's wing defense will be crucial to their chances at another stunner. Dixon, as well as rising freshman Josiah Moseley, the 2024 Texas Gatorade Boys Basketball Player of the Year, can both play inside and outside, posing a tall task for Penn rising senior forward Ed Holland III and the rest of the Quaker defense. That said, Penn limited Dixon to just 4-for-11 shooting in last year’s matchup, and stymying him again would go a long way toward a Penn victory.

Will this year’s Quakers recreate the magic of last year's upset? Will the Red and Blue play for the Big 5 crown? Only November holds the answers.