Study led by Penn professor finds 206,000 excess deaths across 21 countries due to COVID-19

An international team of researchers including a Penn professor found that excess deaths occurred at a rate of 18% across 21 countries during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Penn sociology professor Michel Guillot and the team looked at data from 19 European countries, as well as Australia and New Zealand. The team found that 206,000 more people died between mid-February and the end of May in comparison to a baseline simulation as if the pandemic had not occurred, Penn Today reported. The team did not look at the United States because data with enough details has yet to be released.

The research accounted for not only deaths due to COVID-19 but also deaths that stemmed from compromised economic, social, and healthcare circumstances during the pandemic, Penn Today reported. 

“Studying deaths from all causes provides a more comprehensive picture of how the pandemic has affected mortality, both directly and indirectly,” Guillot told Penn Today.

The study found that the extent of cautionary measures, such as lockdowns and social-distancing protocols, negatively correlated with the number of excess deaths, Penn Today reported. England, Wales, and Spain, countries that delayed the implementation of a nationwide lockdown, accounted for 50% of the excess deaths across the 21 countries in the study. 

England and Wales both experienced a 37% increase in excess deaths, and Spain saw a 38% increase, Penn Today reported.

Countries with more comprehensive contact tracing, testing, lockdown procedures, and healthcare resources, however, such as Austria, New Zealand, and Denmark, did not see a sharp increase in total deaths compared to a baseline simulation. 

Guillot and his team's study comes after a similar study by Penn researchers found that the United States’ COVID-19 death toll is underestimated by 36% due to the indirect effects of the pandemic.