Louis Capozzi | Tread on Me

Citizen Capozzi | How Gary Johnson and the Libertarian Party could shake up the 2016 presidential election

By Louis Capozzi 06/09/16 9:35am

2016 will be a busy year for libertarians.

While only 11 percent of Americans identify as ideological libertarians, they could make or break the race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.

This is not role that libertarian voters desired. On the one hand, Trump’s GOP favors harsh measures against illegal immigration, opposes free trade, and supports entitlement programs.

Yet, from a libertarian perspective, Clinton represents the worst combination of leftist positions. Like most Democrats, she supports entitlement programs, higher taxes, and increased federal regulations. However, unlike many Democrats, she is a foreign policy hawk who supported interventions in Iraq, Libya, and Syria.

In other words, a win for either Clinton or Trump is bad news for libertarians.

But this year, voters will have a third choice: Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson.

A former governor of New Mexico, Johnson supports free trade, gay marriage, abortion rights, and more immigration. He also opposes higher taxes, the Department of Education, and an interventionist foreign policy.

In 2012, Johnson’s platform only earned him 1 percent of the vote, which was the Libertarian Party’s best election result nevertheless. But there are reasons to think he can do better in 2016.

In a three-way matchup with Trump and Clinton, polls have shown Johnson earning anywhere from 4 percent to 11 percent of the national presidential vote. If Johnson ends up performing in this range in November, watch out for strange results in states with libertarian tendencies like Colorado, Maine, New Mexico, Nevada, and New Hampshire.

Undoubtedly, part of Johnson’s support comes from Republicans disillusioned with Trump. Indeed, Johnson explicitly appealed to these conservatives when he chose the former GOP governor of Massachusetts, William Weld, as his running mate. Some prominent Republicans, including Senator Ben Sasse, an outspoken Trump critic, and Mary Matalin, a prominent conservative pundit, are openly considering supporting Johnson.

As the media frequently does when they convert their personal dislike of Trump into skewed analysis, they are taking Johnson’s polling potential and predicting trouble for Trump in November.

But Johnson could actually cause more trouble for Clinton than for Trump. The most recent Fox News Poll shows Johnson siphoning just as many Democrats from Clinton as Republicans from their presumptive nominee. When the last Quinnipiac poll included Johnson, Clinton’s lead over Trump dropped from four to two points.

If Johnson performs as polls currently predict, Clinton will face two serious problems. First, Johnson will draw votes from “Never Trump” voters who might have otherwise have supported Clinton.

Second, Johnson could perform well with young voters, a crucial demographic for Clinton. Currently, Johnson performs best — near 20 percent — in polls with voters under the age of 35. As the Democratic Primary sputters to an anticlimactic win for Clinton, many of Bernie Sanders’ supporters are bitter and disgruntled.

According to the most recent YouGov poll, 61 percent of Sanders voters have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton, while 15 percent say they will vote for Trump. Even more alarming for Clinton, 30 percent of Sanders voters say they will consider a third party candidate or not vote.

This is where Johnson might come into play. In the Democratic Primary, Sanders won around 80 percent of voters under thirty. If Johnson converts his popularity with young people into support from Sanders voters, he will likely hurt Clinton more than Trump.

But will Johnson perform well enough to do this, or will his support fade?

Politically, “lowercase-‘l’” libertarians are divided and not fully behind the Libertarian Party. Some prominent libertarians like Rand Paul are hesitantly backing Trump, while his father Ron Paul, is not currently backing anyone, and Johnson could certainly use their support.

To be a legitimate candidate, Johnson will need to raise enough money to afford advertisements and raise his name recognition. Last week, he took a step in the right direction when Chris Rufer, a tomato tycoon, pledged to donate a million dollars to a pro-Johnson super-PAC. Needless to say, however, Johnson will need more cash than that.

Further, Johnson will need to make it onto the presidential debate stage, like Ross Perot did in 1992. To accomplish this, Johnson will need to earn 15 percent in at least five national polls. He’s not there yet, but a few generous donors can probably get him there.

If Johnson makes the debate stage in 2016, he will be a game-changer this fall.

And who knows? Maybe the Libertarian Party will capture momentum and challenge the two-party system in the coming years. Or perhaps libertarians will hold their noses and choose between Trump and Clinton, selecting the less of two evils.

One thing is certain: libertarians will make a lot of noise in 2016.

If they have their way, freedom will ring.

LOUIS CAPOZZI is a rising first-year Penn Law student from Mechanicsburg, PA. His email address is capozzil@sas.upenn.edu. “Citizen Capozzi” appears every other Thursday.

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