Louis Capozzi | A tale of two Trumps

Citizen Capozzi | How to reconcile Donald Trump’s political success with his shocking political mistakes

By Louis Capozzi 06/22/16 9:49pm

Is he a political genius or a buffoon?

Ever since Penn alumnus Donald Trump entered the presidential race, I’ve vacillated on this question.

Last summer, Trump was universally considered a dunce after he infamously descended the Trump Tower escalator before a paid crowd and lambasted Mexican immigrants as rapists and criminals.

The media scoffed at him and routinely predicted his impending demise. Aside from his outlandish positions and lack of political experience, Trump was facing a talented GOP primary field that included five senators and nine governors.

Yet Trump defied all expectations and forced one Washington Post columnist to literally eat his words. He won 35 states and more primary votes than any other Republican in American history. He did this while spending one fourth of what Hillary Clinton spent in the less competitive Democratic primary. And he won even as his Republican opponents spent over $75 million on negative television ads against him.

I was impressed. Even though I publicly opposed his most noteworthy policy positions, I no longer underestimated him. Indeed, I predicted he would defeat Hillary Clinton and become president, defying all the “experts.”

I evaluated him to be a cunning, Machiavellian politician. I assumed he would understand the national electorate. I assumed he would adjust his strategy and pivot to the general election.

I might have been wrong.

Trump not only didn’t adjust, he doubled down. While still promising to build a wall and deport millions of undocumented immigrants, he accused a federal judge, Gonzalo Curiel, of being incapable of adjudicating his case because he is “Mexican.” Of course, Judge Curiel was actually born in Indiana and was so tough on Mexico’s drug cartels that they tried to assassinate him.

The media universally condemned Trump’s comments, but he insisted he was right. Speaker of the House Paul Ryan spoke for many voters when he called Trump’s attack “textbook” racism. But Trump persisted and suggested he’d feel the same way about a Muslim judge.

And then Trump’s polling collapsed, as he transformed a one-point lead over Clinton into a six-point deficit.

Everyday, the media floods the airwaves with negative stories about Trump’s fundraising, lack of campaign infrastructure and the open division within the Republican Party. Many reporters are gleefully mocking Trump, like when he tweeted a recent poll showing himself trailing Clinton by two points.

In other words, Trump is a buffoon again.

But is he? His meteoric rise should prevent us from reaching the summary judgment Trump stubbornly demanded from Judge Curiel.

Trump accurately perceived that the Republican primary electorate felt angry and disenfranchised by political and financial elites. Undoubtedly, Trump has profoundly connected with millions of voters. Moreover, he has already convinced a lot of voters that didn’t previously like him to change their minds. 

In other words, the signs of genius are still there.

But Trump’s genius might just explain his buffoonery. As Francis Bacon taught in Instauratio Magna, misguided genius only pushes one in the wrong direction faster.  Undeniably stubborn, Trump charges forward – or backwards - as fast as he can when he thinks he’s right.

He correctly identified strong voter opposition to immigration policies, and he quickly seized a polling lead in the GOP Primary. But then again, he thought he was right about Judge Gonzalez’s “Mexican” bias, and he rushed into a polling nosedive as most people – myself included – strongly disagreed with him.

And Trump employed a Campaign Manager, Corey Lewandowski, who frequently advised him to trust his instincts, to never change. At least until Monday, when he said, “You’re fired.”

I was surprised. Trump had consistently defended Lewandowski, even when he was accused of assaulting a reporter. But more significantly, Trump was finally acknowledged he was making mistakes. He finally acknowledged that changes were needed.

The ability to change is a fundamental skill in politics. Machiavelli himself wrote in The Prince that a leader must be capable of changing course, of channeling the lion or the fox depending on the circumstances. Up until now, Trump hasn’t seemed to understand this concept. Perhaps Lewandowski’s firing represents a turning point.

But is it too late?

I don’t think so, but it’s certainly getting close to being so.  While Hillary Clinton is disliked by 55 percent of voters, Trump’s unfavorability rating has climbed to around 70 percent.  While Clinton is still dogged by an FBI criminal investigation, Trump is handicapping himself with a campaign team one ninth the size of Clinton’s and is being heavily out-fundraised.

Trump’s stubbornness has dug him into a nearly insurmountable hole. He can still win, but it won’t be easy.

It’ll take a political genius.

LOUIS CAPOZZI is a rising first-year Penn Law student from Mechanicsburg, PA. His email address is capozzil@sas.upenn.edu. “Citizen Capozzi” appears every other Thursday.

Please note All comments are eligible for publication in The Daily Pennsylvanian.