Louis Capozzi | The combover in chief

Citizen Capozzi | Citizen Capozzi predicts Donald Trump will be the next President of the United States

By Louis Capozzi 03/03/16 12:10am

Donald Trump will defeat Hillary Clinton and become the next president of the United States.

To those vehemently insisting that the primaries are ongoing, Trump’s sweeping Super Tuesday triumph makes his eventual victory almost mathematically certain. Meanwhile, the rigged Democratic primary never gave Bernie Sanders a real chance.

That said, let’s skip ahead to what’s really important: the general election. If I were a betting man, I would bet on Trump, even as many Republican leaders are predicting that Trump will destroy the Republican Party.

The head-to-head polling between Trump and Clinton shows a close race, though Clinton tends to poll slightly better. Both candidates are unpopular, and while Trump is more unpopular, around 60 percent of voters distrust Clinton. So what tips the scale in Trump’s favor?

First, history is on Trump’s side. Since 1950, a political party has only won three straight elections once, with even popular presidents like Dwight Eisenhower and Bill Clinton having been succeeded by members of the opposing party. Further, Eisenhower and Clinton had significantly higher approval ratings than Barack Obama does, putting history on Trump’s side.

Second, the American electorate is extraordinarily angry. While Hillary Clinton has been declared President Obama’s heir and argues that “America never stopped being great,” Trump’s angry populist rhetoric connects especially well with white working-class voters. This might explain why about 20 percent of likely Democrat voters would consider Trump, giving him a chance in blue states like Massachusetts. Over 60 percent of the voters believe that the country is heading in the wrong direction, and they might prefer radical change to Clinton, who is a near-perfect embodiment of establishment politics.

But hasn’t Trump taken radical far-right stances that will alienate undecided voters? As I argued previously, this widespread perception is false. Trump supports the ObamaCare mandate, Planned Parenthood and a more progressive tax code. Simultaneously, Trump opposes neoconservative interventions, free trade and entitlement reform.

Yes, Trump has taken radical — though disappointingly popular — stances against illegal immigration and Muslims. But don’t forget, Donald Trump is a master salesman. He’s already rebranding himself as a “common sense” conservative and promising that “everything is negotiable.” Until a year ago, Donald Trump was a Manhattan liberal who invited the Clintons to his wedding. He transformed himself over the last year to win an election, and he’ll do it again.

However, I concede that Trump has a sketchy past containing mob connections, business bankruptcies and troubled marriages. But Clinton also has a full closet of skeletons. The 2016 presidential election will be the nastiest election in American history, dominated by negative ads and personal attacks.

Trump has proven himself a master bully, saturating the media with negative branding that devastated Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio. He’ll do the same to Clinton, starting with her email practices, declaring her a criminal fleeing the FBI. When that accusation stagnates, he’ll resuscitate old accusations from the Whitewater Controversy, capped by the insinuation that Clinton murdered Vince Foster.

When the media laughs that off — but only after repeating the accusation thousands of times — Trump will make Juanita Broaddrick a household name. Broaddrick, Bill Clinton’s most famous rape accuser, has endorsed Trump and is accusing Hillary of trying to “silence” her, even though Clinton has argued that rape victims should be believed. Trump will make that hypocrisy hurt.

And now for the “Trump” card against my argument: Donald Trump is a racist and therefore cannot win. Although the media now regularly repeats that line, many including Al Sharpton are skeptical. Trump, who supports affirmative action, polls around 12 percent with black voters. Compare this with Mitt Romney in 2012, who won only 6 percent of the black vote against Barack Obama. Though Clinton will labor to brand Trump as a racist, it’s hard to imagine him doing worse than Romney.

And finally, record-breaking turnout will boost Trump. Because of Trump, the GOP has seen record turnout in its primary races so far, while Democratic turnout is down from 2008, suggesting low enthusiasm for Clinton.

Clinton will make good arguments — which I mostly agree with — against Trump. But people have underestimated him from the beginning, as I argued last September. This election will be agonizingly close, and could rewrite the textbook of American politics.

Trump has promised he will make Americans “sick of winning.” And in 2017, he might prove himself right.

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