Why we haven't seen snow yet

When I wake up and go to class each morning, I’ve noticed two big things missing from around campus. One, heavy coats, and two, snow.

Now that we’re in December, winter weather is starting to creep into people’s minds, especially as winter break is right around the corner. But when you step outside nowadays, it seems like things are a bit warmer than they should be. If you think that, you’re not wrong. In Philadelphia, November 2015 finished in the top five warmest Novembers on record. We’ve also started out the month of December above average, and it doesn’t look like things will be cooling off in the near future. At the moment, I can’t see many chances for snow until maybe the end of the month.

Looking back at my winter forecast, however, you can see that this was expected. December was never supposed to be a snow-filled month with school-closing blizzards. El Nino is still very strong and pushing massive amounts of warm air into our section of the country. Now there are signs that are pointing to it weakening, which will lead to a colder and snowier second half of winter.

One thing that I have been keeping my eye on is how the computer models are handling global observations. There are currently multiple factors that are pointing to El Nino peaking and then weakening by the end of the calendar year. This indicates a change in the winter weather pattern for us by the time we come back from winter break. However, the models do not seem to be picking up on the actual data and keep prolonging the introduction of a wintrier pattern. Some may look at the models verbatim and call that a forecast, but it’s important to remember that they are to be used as guidance. If you put garbage into them, you will get garbage out. Most recently, computer guidance has been hinting at colder air moving into our area later in the month rather than next year. Don’t expect sustained cold weather for a while, but it is not out of the question that we see cold air move into the eastern United States around Christmas.

In fact, with El Nino remaining a driver of our weather, this could enhance our amount of snowfall. As large amounts of precipitations are thrown into the country and move toward us, with cold air in place, this could lead to quite a bit of snow down the road.

So for those of you asking where the cold and snow is, be patient. By January and February, you will probably have forgotten how warm December was.

Elyas Tecle is a College freshman and meteorologist reporting on weather for The Daily Pennsylvanian.

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