Louis Capozzi | ?Penn’s Political Pipe Dream

Citizen Capozzi | How Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Party’s success in Pennsylvania are making Penn liberals more optimistic than they should be

By Louis Capozzi 11/09/15 2:58pm

The term “Penn bubble” currently takes on a new meaning. On campus, many students think the Democratic Party is flourishing.

And this perspective is somewhat justified. First, Penn students have witnessed a nearby liberal hot streak in Pennsylvania. Just last week, Democrat Jim Kenney overwhelmingly won his election to be Philadelphia’s next mayor. At the same time, Democrats David Wecht, Christine Donohue and Kevin Dougherty swept three important seats on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court after heavily outspending their Republican opponents.

Second, Republicans have suffered a string of recent embarrassments on the national level. With Republican primary frontrunners Donald Trump and Ben Carson routinely making absurd comments and the Tea Party plunging the House of Representatives into chaos, the GOP looks more like the Goofy Old Party lately. Many students see this, including College senior Michelle Gassmann who said, “Students are confident in the Democratic Party’s chances on campus because they don’t perceive a serious challenge posed by Republicans right now.”

Simultaneously, Hillary Clinton has largely unified the Democratic Party and is projected to be a formidable presidential candidate. While her poll numbers keep rising, she also outdueled the House Select Committee on Benghazi, which she successfully painted as a partisan witch-hunt.

In short, all is well for Democrats in the eyes of many Penn students. College sophomore Jacob Gardenswartz argued the “country is leaning more and more politically left on issues” and praised Democratic debates for their policy focus, in contrast to Republicans, who are competing over “who did most to oppose any progress.” College freshman Andrew Ensor was also confident, saying, “I think the Democratic Party is doing pretty well right now in terms of popularity.

“It’s looking good for Democrats in the 2016 presidential race,” he added.

But this confidence might be inappropriate, especially outside of Pennsylvania. Despite Democratic victories here, they suffered major defeats elsewhere in 2015. In Kentucky, Tea Party favorite Matt Bevin handily defeated Jack Conway, a popular attorney general. In Virginia, the Democrat’s money offensive failed to flip the one seat they needed to take control of the Virginia Senate.

Moreover, the Pennsylvania bubble of Democratic success also reaches back to the 2014 elections. Penn students celebrated the victory of Democrat Tom Wolf, who easily ousted the Republican incumbent governor Tom Corbett. However, Democrats suffered overwhelming electoral defeats outside of Pennsylvania that year, and this year’s results only worsened that reality.

After Matt Bevin’s victory in Kentucky, the Democrats control a mere 17 governorships nationwide. In contrast, there are almost twice as many Republican governors, including in deeply liberal states like Massachusetts, Illinois and Maryland. The situation for liberals is even more dire in state legislatures, where the Republicans control 68 state legislative chambers to the 30 controlled by Democrats.

In the 2014 and 2015 elections, Pennsylvania was uniquely successful for the Democratic Party. Perhaps this is contributing to the wave of liberal confidence at Penn? Gassmann thought so, arguing, “Penn is a very liberal campus, so you don’t get a lot of exposure to Republicans. If you don’t see Republicans winning inside your political sphere, you’ll have a biased perception of how well Democrats are doing nationally.”

On the other hand, Democrats can certainly take comfort in the current state of national politics, right? President Barack Obama has defied the pundits’ predictions and avoided lame-duck status with decisive action on immigration, trade and Iran. However, the Republicans retain control over the Senate, where they’re blocking many of President Obama’s federal appointments. Meanwhile in the House of Representatives, the Republicans have their largest majority since the 1920s.

Many Democrats at Penn cite confidence in Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning the White House. College junior Matre Grant, who supports Bernie Sanders, claimed the Democrats “will fare well in 2016” with their “appointed candidate.” Some liberal pundits even think a Trump or Carson nomination could result in a wave of national electoral success for Democrats.

Yet this is likely fantasy. Since the Republicans are more likely to retain the House of Representatives than Clinton is to win the presidency, the nation is more likely to have a Republican-controlled government after 2016 than vice versa. This doesn’t consider the GOP’s domination over state governments, many of which are promoting aggressive conservative agendas. As some pundits are realizing, the Democratic Party is in big trouble.

Meanwhile, back in Penn’s liberal political bubble, Democrats remain self-assured and confident. When the bubble pops, Penn students might not like what they see.

Please note All comments are eligible for publication in The Daily Pennsylvanian.