State support of gay marriage parallels national stats

Pennsylvania voters are now almost evenly divided on legalizing same-sex marriage, according to a recent poll.

Public Policy Polling found that support for same-sex marriage jumped to 45 percent in a poll conducted in early March, with 47 percent opposed. Nearly 75 percent of those sampled identified themselves as usual Republican primary voters. In Nov. 2011, PPP found only 36 percent support for same-sex marriage in the state.

The report echoes a trend of increasing support for same-sex marriage nationally — a mid-March Pew Research poll found 49 percent support compared to 44 percent opposition.

“I think people have gotten to know about gay people, they’ve seen the president of the United States come out in support of marriage equality, they’ve now seen their senator come out in support of marriage equality,” said Ted Martin, executive director of Equality Pennsylvania. “People have come to the conclusion that marriage is not terrible.”

Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) announced Monday that he supports marriage rights for same-sex couples. After another senator made a similar announcement Tuesday, there are now only seven Senate Democrats to not publicly support same-sex marriage.

Advocates and analysts have proposed various theories for the uptick in support for same-sex marriage both nationally and in the state. Political science professor Marc Meredith attributes the shift partially to political pressures on undecided voters, and to younger voters — who tend to support same-sex marriage — increasingly entering the electorate.

“Especially among Democrats, as their political elites are all taking a position supporting gay marriage, it becomes increasingly hard for Democratic voters who want to be good Democrats to say that they don’t support gay marriage,” Meredith said.

Pennsylvania Family Institute field director Brandon McGinley attributes part of the change to a new social stigma on those who favor restricting marriage to heterosexual couples.

“It’s a lot easier to go into the privacy of a polling place and say ‘I support traditional marriage’ than it is to go to another person where there’s a feeling of judgment,” he said. “Now, the socially respectable position is to support redefining marriage.”

McGinley points to pro-same-sex marriage groups such as Equality Pennsylvania as driving forces behind the change in perception.

Meredith agreed that some may feel pressured to answer in favor of same-sex marriage, but cautioned that others may feel pressure to do the opposite — voice opposition to same-sex marriage even though they view it favorably.

Going forward, many see the trend continuing towards majority support for same-sex marriage.

“The massive generational gap on gay marriage in Pennsylvania reflects what we see most places,” said Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling, in the release. “Majority support for it is just around the corner.”

McGinley, however, stressed that he believes the trend shouldn’t be viewed as an inevitable path towards universal acceptance of same-sex marriage.

“There’s clearly a trajectory, and I would be insane to deny it,” McGinley said. “But I would caution against this idea that we are seeing the march of history moving forward.”

Meredith agreed that he expects increasing support for same-sex marriage, including in states where it is currently unpopular, even though it may not come in the near future.

“It’s only a matter of time before you have majority support for gay marriage both in Pennsylvania and the country overall,” Meredith said.

“The current trajectory is that even in places that are most conservative ideologically … eventually I’d expect that there would be a majority even in those states, and that eventually would cause gay marriage to be legal just about everywhere.”

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