Youth voter turnout expected to be high

While the youth voter turnout may not reach the recent high set in 2008, many experts are still expecting a large number of young people to show up at the polls Tuesday.

Several Penn political science professors believe that the fervor among college-age voters during the last presidential election has subsided over the past four years. They stress, however, that even a small drop-off in turnout would still result in a strong youth voter showing.

Political science professor Marc Meredith believes that while young voters haven’t shown the same enthusiasm as they did in 2008, the amount of interest remains “quite high.”

For this election cycle, he said, campaigns have put a “greater emphasis on trying to identify those voters who need a nudge to go out and vote.”

College students often register and vote quite early in adulthood, he said. However, “over the last few election cycles, there has been a push to get the voters out who don’t necessarily reside on college campuses.”

Meredith also noted that campaigns have seen “more inequality” in voting and registration rates among young voters from different educational backgrounds.

Political science professor Rogers Smith added in an email that, while he too does not expect the youth turnout to be as high as it was in 2008, “the Obama campaign has a very effective Get-Out-the-Vote operation and Republicans are highly motivated, so there should not be a dramatic decline either.”

He added that new voter ID laws in a few individual states may deter some first-time voters, but since they have “mostly been struck down or suspended ­… their impact will also probably not prove to be too great.”

Surveys on predicted youth turnout rates have offered competing predictions.

Last week, Tufts University’s Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Education indicated that 55 percent of 18 to 29-year-olds are “extremely likely” to vote in the election. If this number holds to be true, it would mark a nearly 10-percent increase from the same age group in 2008.

The survey recorded responses from about 2,700 young voters on two occasions — once in mid-summer and again in October.

In addition, the CIRCLE report showed evidence of a greater effort on the part of the Obama campaign to attract young voters. Of the participants who were contacted by a campaign, about 60 percent reported having heard from Obama’s campaign staff or volunteers, while 32 percent reported having heard from Romney’s.

In September, however, the Pew Research Center found that only half of voters under 30 were certain that they had even registered to vote. This percentage was a decline from the 61 percent in the last election cycle.

Political science professor John DiIulio has made some youth voter turnout projections of his own.

By his estimation, 17 percent of all voters who will show up at the polls Tuesday will fall between the ages of 18 and 29. He also predicts that about two thirds of all 18 to 20-year-olds who vote will choose Obama for president.

Like Smith, DiIulio believes that the youth turnout will be slightly lower than it was four years ago.

Some Pennsylvania student-based political groups, however, believe that 2012 may end up yielding a greater turnout of young voters.

Derrick Magnotta, membership director of the Pennsylvania College Democrats — the college arm of the state Democratic Party — said both of the candidates have focused on issues that are relevant to young Americans.

“A lot of talk is coming from pundits saying, ‘The youth vote is down, the youth vote is down,’” he said. “But I think these are major policy issues that are drawing [students] to the polls.”

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