H1N1 cases declining at Penn

Pandemic influenza may be retreating, but health officials warn against relaxing just yet.

New suspected H1N1 cases have fallen dramatically at Penn, dropping a full 31 percent over the last week, according to Matthew Waller, spokesman for the Office of the Vice Provost of University Life. This made Penn’s infection rate 34.2 cases per 10,000 students for the week of Nov. 15-21.

New cases also saw a huge drop on college campuses nationwide for the third consecutive week, falling 69 percent to just 4.1 cases per 10,000 students for the week of Nov. 21-27, according to the American College Health Association.

But Student Health Service director Evelyn Wiener said the falling numbers don’t necessarily mean that H1N1 influenza is going away.

“Pandemics in the past, particularly the 1918-1919 influenza, have come in clear cycles and waves, typically lasting six to eight weeks,” Wiener said. “In modern times, we look for cycles of six to twelve weeks.”

H1N1 influenza was first detected in the United States in mid-April. Infection rates were high for six weeks, then fell off as summer progressed. Cases began to surge again in September when students returned to school.

Wiener cautioned that currently falling infection rates are not a reason to avoid vaccination. Some people fall ill even during periods of low infection, she said.

“It’s not well understood why these things go in waves,” Wiener said. In rare cases, “some people might get it the first time and then again the second time.”

Despite the possibility of re-infection, Wiener said the vaccine should remain effective if H1N1 surges a third time.

“We’re not currently detecting a large person-to-person transmission of mutation,” she said, explaining why the vaccine should remain effective through another wave of cases.

SHS will hold its final H1N1 vaccination clinic for the semester Friday from 10 a.m. to 3 p.m. in the ARCH building. Students are asked to bring their PennCards and wear clothing which permits access to the upper arm.

SHS is also currently distributing seasonal flu vaccine by appointment. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommend that all persons under the age of 24 receive both the seasonal and H1N1 flu vaccines.

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