Congressman may get boost from dropout

Jonathan Saidel's surprise withdrawal from the mayoral race may be one potential candidate's gain.

Saidel's decision not to run means that U.S. Rep. Bob Brady and union head John Dougherty are now left as the only two major white candidates in the May Democratic ballot race.

Both men have yet to officially declare candidacy, but there is widespread speculation about the possibility.

And with Philadelphia's history of voting along racial lines, the withdrawal of a white candidate may give Brady a distinct advantage over the three possible black candidates: U.S. Rep. Chaka Fattah, former city councilman Michael Nutter and state Rep. Dwight Evans, who is also considered likely to run.

"The math is pretty simple: If you have three major black candidates, one major white candidate [Dougherty] and one half candidate [Philadelphia businessman Tom Knox], it gives Brady a major leg up," said Republican political consultant Chris Mottola, who pointed out that Knox is not considered a serious challenger for the race.

But despite the historical precedence, some experts believe the upcoming race will break traditional racial preferences.

Ken Snyder, a political consultant who has worked with Brady in the past, said Brady has represented a black majority district for years and has a lot of support in the black community. Brady was also recently honored as NAACP man of the year.

"I don't think that Philadelphians will vote along racial lines this year," said political consultant Larry Ceisler, who has worked for Dougherty. "I think that all three of the black candidates have a lot of appeal to white voters, and Brady certainly has some appeal to black voters."

Saidel's decision to drop out came only a week after he had set up a campaign office, and some claimed the announcement was the result of pressure from Brady to leave the race.

But Dan Fee, Saidel's spokesman, said Saidel's decision had nothing to do with rumors that Brady had forced him to withdraw.

"When he looked at his responsibilities as a father and his responsibility to his employers and what it would take to run a winning campaign, he felt that there were just not enough hours in the day," Fee said.

But Ceisler said he thought there was more at stake in Saidel's decision.

"Saidel didn't drop out for his health. Obviously, some people visited him and dissuaded him from running," he said, adding that Saidel had wanted to be mayor for 20 years and already had garnered a fair amount of political support.

As for whether a mayoral-bid announcement by Brady seems imminent, political experts agree that the chances look good.

"I think most people can bet that Bob Brady will run, but we will know for sure if he announces putting together a fundraising or policy committee," Snyder said; this would indicate an intention to run, even if no formal declaration is made until the new year.

Brady spokesmen could not be reached for comment.

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