As the Penn men's soccer team learned last Saturday, destiny is a fickle thing.
Despite playing arguably their most inspired 110 minutes of the season, the Quakers could only muster a scoreless draw with Brown, leaving their league title aspirations in limbo heading into the final weekend of Ivy League competition.
Before Saturday night, the league championship had been Penn's to lose. The Quakers and Harvard shared first place with 12 points each in what was becoming a hotly contested race for the title. However, since the Red and Blue earned control of the tiebreaker with a resounding 3-1 win over Harvard in late September, all it needed to do to take the league crown was win the last two games.
The Crimson's triumph over Dartmouth in Hanover, N.H., on Sunday moved the team to 15 points - two ahead of Penn and four ahead of third-place Brown - mathematically eliminating the Bears from contention. In the Ivy League, three points are awarded for a win, one for a draw and zero for a loss.
Therefore, in order to beat out Harvard for the title, Penn will need to beat second-to-last-place Princeton, a task that has proven quite difficult over the past few decades. The Red and Blue has not defeated the Tigers since 1985, and it has not won a game at Princeton in the last 30 years.
"It's a little disappointing that we're not controlling our own destiny anymore," senior forward Ryan Tracy said. "But we have to beat Princeton, and that's all we're focusing on right now."
Provided that Penn can break its winless streak against the Tigers this Saturday, it will need Harvard either to tie or lose to Columbia. If the Crimson plays to a draw against the visiting Lions, it will wind up tied with the Quakers at 16 points, giving Penn the edge with the tiebreaker.
If the past few weeks are any indication, Harvard is the clear-cut favorite to be crowned Ivy League champion by the week's end. Since losing to Penn, the Crimson has had a perfect record against the rest of league, highlighted by a 6-2 thrashing of Brown on Oct. 14.
Meanwhile, the Quakers have sputtered a bit as of late, dropping a crucial decision to Dartmouth on Oct. 15 in addition to tying with the Bears last Saturday.
Sophomore forward Mike Klein expressed disappointment over the recent results, lamenting the need to rely now on outside factors in order to win the league.
"We felt like we should have gotten a win," he said. "Now it's not in our own hands anymore, and that's not what we wanted."
Quest for the Cup
Regardless of what happens in the league, this weekend's action will also have an impact on Penn's potential inclusion in the the NCAA's national championship tournament.
Though Penn's recent draw might hurt its chances of winning the league, earning a point against Brown could help the Quakers' Ratings Percentage Index, which is a computerized ranking that largely determines which teams get selected for the NCAA Tournament. With impressive non-conference victories, the Bears were 11th in last week's RPI rankings, while Penn was ranked (44) behind Harvard (24) and Dartmouth (43).
Winning the league guarantees a spot in the national tournament, but if the Quakers fail to do this, they could receive an at-large bid from the selection committee by ending the season on a high note.
Curiously, if Harvard does win this weekend, it might help Penn's RPI. The Quakers' easy victory over the Crimson earlier in the season would bode well for RPI purposes if Harvard can win the league and achieve an even better ranking. In this case, it would mean that Penn took down a high-quality opponent, thereby improving its status in the RPI.
Next Monday, once all the dust has settled, the selection committee will finalize and announce the teams who will compete for the College Cup.
The tournament selection show will be broadcast on ESPNEWS from 4 to 5 p.m. on Monday.
Until then, all Penn can do is win, hope and wait.
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