Michelle Dubert | Fighting history, GOP has a shot

As the Republican Party ex-Foley-ated and announced it has all but conceded Ohio, it's clear that the Democrats are in line to score in next month's midterm elections. But with 19 days to go, whether they'll win enough still looms large.

Democrats need to gain 15 seats to retake the House and six for the Senate. Right now, Republicans appear almost frozen as House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) jots down decorating plans for the speaker's suite. The real question seems to be whether the Republicans are on damage control or are actually waging a campaign to win.

The media have largely ignored the inherent disadvantage the Republicans face. Sixth-year midterms have gone poorly for two-term incumbents over the last 60 years. In the six "sixth-year-itch" midterms since World War II, the incumbent party has averaged a loss of six Senate seats, compared to an average of three in second-year midterms. In four of those six races, the opposite party won control of the House, and in three of those four years picked up 47 or 48 seats. One could predict a major uphill battle for Republicans based on these statistics alone.

But politics doesn't exist in a vacuum. Democrats have significant advantages that Republican spin doctors have tried to twist but quietly recognize.

Sixty-seven Americans have already died so far this month in Iraq. The "culture of corruption" and ethics charges have resurfaced with the guilty plea of Rep. Bob Ney (R-Ohio) and the FBI investigation into Pennsylvania Rep. Curt Weldon (R-Pa.). Bush's still-dismal approval ratings haven't peaked past 42 percent in any reliable poll in months. And, in what might yet prove to be the biggest catalyst, the Foley scandal diverted Republican rhetoric from national security to a scramble for damage control.

Vice President Cheney told conservative broadcaster Rush Limbaugh on Tuesday that "we got a good shot at holding the House" on Election Day. "Good shot" aren't the words of a confident competitor, but even though the GOP is bracing itself for the worst, there are several reasons not to write them off just yet.

For starters, Republicans still have more money than Democrats, which they intend to use in coming weeks. Despite Democratic incumbents and challengers' strong third-quarter fundraising figures, Republican House candidates have maintained an edge. Of the 31 most competitive House races - according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report - Republicans enjoyed $32.7 million cash on hand as of Sept. 30, versus their Democratic challengers' $14.5 million. And as of Aug. 30, the Republican National Committee held a near 4-1 cash advantage with $39.3 million to the Democratic National Committee's $10.9 million.

With that said, the power of incumbency is a major impetus. While voter approval of Congress hovers around 20 percent according to recent polls, Americans are more likely to crave a "new direction" for the government, but typically not at the expense of their own representatives. Gerrymandered districts aside, the "experience" of an incumbent can be a virtue rather than a liability if Republicans can re-emphasize the sobriety needed in Washington "at a time of war."

One of the greatest advantages that Republicans have enjoyed during the Bush presidency is their superior voter-turnout efforts, which are strongly in line again this year. Though there was some worry that the Foley uproar would compel so-called values voters to stay home rather than cast ballots for a party of kinky child molesters, there is appreciably less indication of this happening now. It could still affect a handful of specific races, however, like in Florida's 16th District, which was represented by Foley, but there's less basis to envisage the onslaught of a widespread panic.

And perhaps most crucially, Democrats are notoriously bad at winning key elections, looking to Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) in 2004 as a prime example. Since sentiment on the Iraq war went sour last year, the sixth-year midterms have been the Democrats' to lose. They've failed since Bush took office to effectively define their opponents and craft a cohesive message to carry into the 2002 and 2004 elections. This year is no exception. If Republicans make any kind of stride next month, it will result from their foes across the aisle.

This is not at all to say that Republicans are destined to prevail in by far their toughest year since they wrested control of Congress from the Democrats in 1994. But three weeks can be a political eternity, and while speculation and predictions will continue to mount until then, this race ain't over till Karl Rove says it is.

Michelle Dubert is a College senior from Closter, N.J. Her e-mail address is dubert@dailypennsylvanian.com. Department of Strategery appears on Thursdays.

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