Agustin Torres | Mexico's political future hangs in the balance

On July 2, Mexico faced the most competitive presidential election in its history. On Sept. 5, the Federal Electoral Tribunal - the ultimate arbiter of Mexican elections - officially declared conservative Felipe Calderon the president-elect of Mexico. He won by a difference of only 233,831 votes, or 0.56 percent, over leftist candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.

Only 10 days ago, President Vicente Fox had to travel to Dolores, Hidalgo to celebrate Mexico's independence, due to fear that Lopez Obrador's supporters would cause violence if the ceremonies were held in Mexico City, as is tradition.

The next day, Sept. 16, in yet another historical event, Lopez Obrador held a "National Democratic Convention," where he was declared "legitimate president of Mexico" by his supporters. Ironically, this decision was "approved" by a simple show of hands among the about one million people that were present.

The convention was a paradox in itself.

It was not national, as only a small fraction of the entire population attended and voted. It also was not democratic. Plus, everyone who attended already supported Lopez Obrador. And, if Lopez Obrador were the actual legitimate president, then his title would not include the word "legitimate."

But how did we get to this point? What is the legacy of the Fox administration? What has contributed to Lopez Obrador's movement?

The Election. While evidence doesn't seem to suggest widespread fraud, as Lopez Obrador's movement claims, the election did present several issues that, in combination, led to a weakened trust in electoral institutions. President Fox conducted a massive advertising campaign that was eventually diminished by orders of the Federal Electoral Institute, but this was not done soon enough. Lopez Obrador was presented in the media as a "danger to Mexico," and he was also compared to Hugo Chavez, president of Venezuela.

Second, the final report issued after certification of Calderon's victory by the Federal Electoral Tribunal was poorly written and contradictory. While it acknowledges Fox's unfair intervention, the report concludes the advertisements did not tip the election in Calderon's favor - claiming it was impossible to say how much any one action swayed votes.

Despite his irresponsible intervention as recognized in writing by the tribunal, Fox will not face any sort of punishment. Future electoral law must be revised to close this loophole.

The Movement. Mexican writer Carlos Fuentes claimed in an interview that "extremists in Mexico want to return the country back to the 19th century, to the struggle between liberals and conservatives, as if the Mexican Revolution never took place, and that can't happen."

Indeed, he suggests to Lopez Obrador that he should head a movement within his own political party. The campaign should offer serious opposition to the Calderon administration, allowing Lopez Obrador an open door to the presidency in 2012, all the while respecting the country's electoral institutions.

Fox's Legacy. Economically, Fox hands in a stable country, unlike in 1994, when Ernesto Zedillo presided over major economic upheaval during his first months in office.

Yet, politically, Fox is the president of rancor. He has with his words consistently infuriated others and vaguely addressed delicate topics, including his religion, the political ambitions of his wife and his prejudices against the past. He was incapable of forming a coalition to reach agreements and he hasn't done anything regarding the state of Oaxaca, which is currently under the total control of an assembly formed by protesting teachers.

Even though the current situation is delicate, there are opportunities for progress. Calderon's party has the majority in the Congress, and Lopez Obrador's movement is no longer blocking the main streets of Mexico City.

Like the phoenix, Mexico's electoral institutions, Lopez Obrador's movement and the Fox administration's political stagnation should be capable of rising from the ashes.

Agustin Torres is an Engineering sophomore from Monterrey, Mexico. His e-mail address is torres@dailypennsylvanian.com. The Monday Burrito appears on Mondays.

Please note All comments are eligible for publication in The Daily Pennsylvanian.