Doctors stress awareness, not panic with Avian flu

Increasing reports of avian bird flu have raised anxiety about a possible pandemic, but experts at Penn say the deadly disease is not an imminent threat.

The avian influenza is extremely contagious and rapidly fatal in birds. Scientists have recently discovered a strain of the virus that can infect humans.

"It gives great concern about the possibility of human-to-human spread and in that case, would cause very serious disease," said Raymond Strikas, associate director for adult immunization at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

There have been few reported cases of the virus being transmitted from human to human.

Medical experts at Penn say the threat is not worth worrying about yet.

"The immediate risk is negligible; however, the future risk is very real and very tangible," said Neil Fishman, director of Healthcare Epidemiology and Infection Control at Penn.

However, Fishman notes the importance of being prepared for all types of potential medical emergencies.

Officials at Penn maintain an emergency plan, but not for bird flu specifically.

"We are working on and developing a pandemic influenza plan, but it's in the context of our general emergency preparedness," Fishman said.

Some of the efforts being made include making sure that there is enough healthy medical personnel on hand and having rapid access to medical resources, such as medication and equipment.

In the past century, pandemics have occurred in 1918, 1957, and 1968. The pandemic in 1918 -- which was recently discovered to be caused by an avian flu virus -- caused an estimated 40 to 50 million deaths worldwide, according to World Health Organization data.

"I think that everybody is aware that this is a threat, and that it is something that is likely to happen as part of the cycle that we see with influenza," Student Health Director Evelyn Wiener said.

One of the main fears is that the virus will mutate in a way that would allow it to travel from human to human.

"The scariest thing would be ... if the avian influenza came in contact with the human influenza virus so that the genes mixed," Fishman said.

On a worldwide level, there has been increased surveillance to look for the virus in birds and people. The National Institute of Health has also been developing a vaccine.

However, according to Strikas, vaccines could take six to nine months to develop and, even still, could not be geared directly toward the virus since it mutates over time.

There is also the option of using anti-viral drugs such as Tamiflu, which would require large doses to be effective. Currently the United States only has 2.3 million doses.

"We're much better off now than we were some years ago, but we're not as well off as we'd like to be," Strikas said.

Regardless, experts at Penn caution that the community should not be too worried.

"I think that the interest in this disease is important but there's also the concern of creating a sense of panic," Harvey Friedman, chief of Infectious Diseases at the Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania said. "Knowledge is good ... paranoia is not."

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