Markian Dobczansky: The future of democracy in Ukraine hinges on election

In case you missed it, another very important presidential election took place this week. Voters went to the polls in Ukraine on Sunday to select their third president since declaring independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. The leading candidates were current Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych and former Prime Minister and West-leaning reformer Viktor Yushchenko, who were locked in a close race.

Ukrainian voters, however, will have to wait a bit longer to find out who their next president is. A runoff vote has been scheduled for Nov. 21, as neither candidate received a majority of the votes in the first round. After the Central Election Commission had counted 97.67 percent of the vote -- with 39.88 percent for Yanukovych and 39.22 percent for Yushchenko -- it hasn't bothered to count the remaining 2.33 percent.

The commission claims it needs more time, but Yushchenko's campaign manager, Oleksandr Zinchenko, alleges the CEC "simply [does] not have the courage to declare Viktor Yushchenko the winner." The uncounted votes are from the western and central regions of Ukraine -- where Yushchenko has large majorities -- and many observers say the uncounted votes are enough for him to pass Yanukovych and officially win the first round.

It is hard to overstate the importance of this election for Ukraine, a country of 48 million people. Since independence in 1991, Ukraine has been balancing between the European Union and Russia. Domestically, as the state has slowly been turned into an instrument with which corrupt officials and mafia bosses can enrich themselves, like neighboring Belarus and Russia.

Vladimir Putin of Russia won re-election this year with 70 percent of the vote, and Alyaksandr Lukashenka of Belarus recently falsified a referendum to amend the constitution and allow him to run for a third term. The situation in these countries is not encouraging for democracy.

Ukraine, however, is different. There is a strong opposition. Yushchenko's Our Ukraine coalition holds more seats in Parliament than any other party. He has consistently been the most popular politician in Ukraine. Many predicted he would win easily in free and fair elections. Unfortunately, in spite of calls from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, NATO, the European Union and dozens of American politicians for free and fair elections in Ukraine, the authorities have not allowed such a campaign. And there are indications that last Sunday's voting continued this pattern of corruption.

The campaign up to this point has not even been in the neighborhood of free and fair; it has been downright murderous. The incumbent prime minister, Viktor Yanukovych, who has the support of outgoing President Leonid Kuchma and of Russian President Putin, has taken full advantage of state resources, funneling some $300 million into his campaign. He has turned most of the nationwide media, owned by the state or by oligarchs close to the authorities, into a propaganda machine.

Yushchenko, on the other hand, has faced several possible assassination attempts, including a run-in with one of the infamous Kamaz lorries, in which his car was run off the road. More than a few high-level officials have been killed in similar car accidents since 1991, including former Soviet dissident and presidential candidate Vyacheslav Chornovil and former head of the National Bank Vadim Hetman. In early September, Yushchenko almost died from acute food poisoning and was forced from the campaign trail for a few weeks. The authorities' cynical response? "Watch what you eat."

As for campaigning, Yushchenko's rallies in eastern and southern Ukrainian cities have been disrupted by violent bands of thugs with leather jackets and shaved heads that many say are linked with the authorities. And how's this for negative campaign advertising -- billboards in the eastern city of Donetsk have been put up, showing Yushchenko in a Nazi uniform -- an obscene allegation considering his father fought the Nazis in World War II.

To add to the outrage, Ukraine's giant northern neighbor has not kept its distance. Russia has been openly tampering with these elections, sending in Russian spin doctors, opening a Russian cultural club in Kiev and, most outrageously, scheduling a visit from Putin in the week preceding the election, ostensibly to commemorate the liberation of Kiev from Nazi forces in World War II. It is noteworthy that this particular anniversary has never been celebrated in this fashion before.

So while the United States and Europe have called for a free and fair election and have consistently refrained from endorsing a particular candidate, Russia has openly cast its lot with Yanukovych.

Where is the criticism of this obvious meddling in the affairs of another sovereign state? Maybe Europe and America have written Ukraine off as a sphere of Russian influence. Or maybe President Bush has simply given Putin a blank check. It would be interesting to know what he received for it, however. It is, after all, Ukraine that has sent troops to Iraq and not Russia.

This is not a choice between two legitimate candidates. Ukraine stands at the edge of the abyss -- a victory for Yanukovych will surely bring the country closer to the Belarussian model of authoritarianism. If President Bush were serious about spreading democracy around the world, he should be paying closer attention to the elections in the former Soviet Union and Ukraine in particular. Regardless, if the results of the runoff election are falsified, look to the streets of Kiev on Nov. 21.

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