Penn strongly favors Kerry

Penn students will overwhelmingly turn out for John Kerry on Nov. 2, according to a poll conducted by The Daily Pennsylvanian.

In the survey of 704 undergraduates, 68 percent of those who said they intend to vote will choose Sen. Kerry, while fewer than 19 percent will support President George W. Bush. Fewer than 1 percent will vote for another candidate, while 12 percent were undecided.

The poll, conducted over a three-day period ending Wednesday, has a margin of error of 3.5 percent.

No one, from student political party groups to experienced pollsters, was surprised by the results, acknowledging that most Penn students hold liberal views.

"I think it's obviously very encouraging ... to see that level of support for Kerry," Penn College Democrats President Rich Eisenberg said. "If we win by that kind of margin, we should be happy."

Even David Copley, the chairman of the Pennsylvania State Federation of College Republicans, said the results were characteristic of Penn's political makeup and did not bode badly for Bush at all. The Wharton senior noted that the DP's poll in 2000 had nearly identical results that bore little relation to the electoral vote outcome.

"I think there's gonna be a lot of very unhappy Penn students on November 3rd," Copley said. "Nationally, the president is doing well." He added that in most battleground states, polls were favorable for Bush.

Genuine belief in Kerry's policies may not even be the reason for such a high proportion of Kerry supporters. The liberal tendency may mean that voting for Kerry is the popular thing to do.

"I think that's the socially desirable thing to say," Political Science professor Henry Teune said. "The campus is pro-Kerry ... so there might be peer pressure."

Only 4 percent of eligible voters said they will not be voting in the election. Some students polled were not U.S. citizens or would not be at least 18 years old on Election Day.

Bush's foreign policy weighs heavily on students' minds, with 44 percent saying that it is the most important issue to them in the election.

"I think what it does show ... is that students have been very upset as to the way Bush has been handling war in Iraq," Eisenberg said. "I think that's a driving force."

In most polls, Bush has led Kerry in foreign policy issues such as the war on terror. Yet, only 22 percent of students whose top priority was foreign policy are voting for Bush, as opposed to 67 percent for Kerry.

In this instance, Penn students bucked the trend.

"Most voters as a whole who are voting on foreign policy issues are voting for President Bush," said Terry Madonna, the director of the Keystone Poll. "Kerry's big support comes from the economy."

Democrats attributed the difference to a realization among college students that they may become embroiled in the Iraq war.

"I would imagine that if you're of college age and looking at Iraq, that you're concerned about the potential for a draft," Democratic spokesman Mark Nevins said.

Yet, Republicans claim that Kerry is unsuitable for the position of commander in chief, and that liberalism is the main factor behind support for Kerry's foreign policy.

"People on this campus tend to be socially very liberal. It doesn't necessarily translate well into Bush's aggressive stance on terrorism," Copley said.

The status of the economy was the second greatest concern among students, at 22 percent. Teune said that as campaigns begin to focus more on employment issues, the numbers for foreign policy will come down while those for the economy will rise.

Yet, several people said that the only poll that truly matters is on Election Day, and student turnout may not be nearly as high as the survey suggests. In 2000, only 42 percent of the 18- to 24-year-old age group voted.

Teune said that, when people are asked whether they voted, "it's 15 percent more than really did."

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