Michelle Dubert: Keep the champagne on ice: Bush hasn't won yet

We all have our favorite clich‚s to throw around when the time is right. Mine is "don't count your chickens before they hatch." Republicans should be feeling pretty good about their forecast in 2004, but premature delusions of grandeur could prove fatal. Election Day lies a good 10 months ahead, and politics loves surprises.

I can't forget Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe's appearance on Meet the Press on Nov. 3, 2002. Chipper that morning, yet still bitter over the Florida recount results from two years prior, he guaranteed Tim Russert of Florida governor Jeb Bush's landslide defeat and the upheaval of Republicans across America. "There won't be anything as devastating to President Bush than his brother's losing Florida," he later declared. Two days afterward, Republicans increased their majority in the House, reclaimed control in the Senate and Jeb Bush shellacked opponent Jim McBride 56 percent to 43 percent. Needless to say, McAuliffe's predictions fell slightly off the mark.

Today, Republicans are enjoying the prospect of Howard Dean challenging President Bush in 2004. With Dean as the probable Democratic nominee, Bush/Cheney '04 is likely headed for a second term. Also, if Bush wins the same states as 2000, he'd garner an additional 13 electoral votes from census redistricting.

But literature reminds us that the tragic hero always falls from his hubris; if Bush supporters grow too confident, their hero could meet an untimely political demise. As exemplified by McAuliffe, it's unwise to start celebrating early. President Bush is on pace to win in 2004, but cockiness doesn't pave the path to victory. I'm keeping my Dom Perignon sealed and chilled until Dean gives his concession speech on Nov. 2.

Republicans have a lot of work to do. Bush isn't only fighting Howard Dean, or any individual in particular, but Dean's incumbent supporters. Democrats enter each election with an inherent advantage -- a constituency for which they fight little to attain, but always manage to win nonetheless -- minority voters.

In the past half-century, minorities have become a significant force in the Democratic electorate. Despite Republicans' efforts to persuade these voters, blacks and Hispanics seemingly refuse to stray from the Left. John O'Sullivan, former editor of National Review Online, said, "The problem the Republican Party faces is that neither Hispanics nor blacks are showing any signs of shifting toward the Republicans. And as the minority population expands, so does the obstacle lying before GOP contenders."

As of March 2002, the U.S. Census Bureau measured the Hispanic population of the United States at 37.4 million, representing 13.3 percent of our total population. At the same time, the blacks population came to 36 million, equaling 13 percent of the civilian population. According to the Census Bureau and Pollingreport.com, a nonpartisan polling organization, in the 2000 presidential election blacks and Hispanics together comprised 22 percent of the voting population and 16 percent of the total vote.

But this is where Republicans stumble: 90 percent of blacks and 61 percent of Hispanics voted for Al Gore. The numbers are similar in past elections as well. With that said, Democrats enter the game with a substantial chunk of the American voting bloc already under their belts.

Nevertheless, the Right has managed to win four of the past six presidential elections. But that's not occasion to relax. Howard Dean still has a shot at the White House. Underdogs can win. The Weekly Standard editor William Kristol envisioned the scenario in an op-ed for the Dec. 9 Washington Post, asking, "could Dean really win? Unfortunately, yes. The Democratic presidential candidate has, alas, won the popular presidential vote three times in a row, most recently with the hapless Al Gore at the helm. And demographic trends (particularly the growth of Hispanic voters) tend to favor the Democrats going into 2004."

At this point, however, CBS News/New York Times polls from Dec. 26 indicate otherwise. President Bush's job approval ratings lie at 60 percent; but perhaps more importantly, a Bush vs. Dean matchup furnishes Bush with a 55 percent to 35 percent edge over Dean overall, and a 57 percent to 28 percent lead among crucial independent voters.

So who really has the momentum? Clearly Dean is dominating the other candidates within his party, but can his inertia steamroll President Bush come November?

I'm not making wagers, but I'm looking forward to learning more about the former Vermont governor later this year. When it comes down to it, I trust a Bush/Cheney ticket will beat a Dean/Wesley Clark ticket, a Dean/Hillary Clinton ticket, an Anybody/Clark ticket, or an Anybody/Anybody ticket. But I'm not counting chickens before they hatch. Michelle Dubert is a College freshman from Closter, N.J. Department of Strategery appears on Mondays.

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