Katz loses by more than anticipated

It was supposed to be closer than that.

All day yesterday, at Republican mayoral challenger Sam Katz's Election Day headquarters, staffers were optimistic that strong turnout in Center City and Northeast Philadelphia -- supposed bastions of Katz support -- would lead their candidate to victory.

But the results of the election were not what they thought they would be.

Katz lost to Democratic incumbent John Street, 58 percent to 42 percent, by a significantly larger margin than expected.

Last week, Katz himself told reporters that the race would be decided by no more than 2 percent.

In his concession speech, he seemed unclear about what went wrong.

"This is an election that I thought under circumstances we could have won," he said. "Those circumstances simply didn't materialize."

"This is a very strange business, I can assure you. And the ball bounces in certain ways and neither of us expected the ball to bounce in this campaign the way it did," he added.

It seems his campaign staffers hadn't seen such an overwhelming defeat coming, either. Hope stayed alive late into the evening because of positive reports from many Katz-friendly districts.

When the polls closed at 8 p.m., lines of up to 80 people were still waiting to vote in some northeastern districts, according to Katz campaign manager Brian Tierney.

In West Philadelphia districts, where Street is more popular, the polls were empty in the evening, he added.

And according to conventional wisdom, turnout was going to decide this race.

But after 11 p.m., and after Katz's formal concession, Tierney was at somewhat of a loss to explain what happened. He seemed to believe that voters simply chose the other guy, and that the Federal Bureau of Investigation's bugging of the mayor's office was a significant factor.

"Turnout was unbelievable," Tierney maintained. "Everybody on Street's side was concerned about voter turnout. What we have found is that in certain areas where we would have the white liberal vote [which the Katz campaign was relying on to win], these folks really did believe that this bug... that somehow it's a conspiracy."

He added that Street used the bugging as an effective campaign tool.

"I know that this time, before the bugging occurred, our campaign was ahead," Tierney said. "The mayor was able to make it into a half anti-African American conspiracy and [a half] Republican conspiracy."

Though no comprehensive breakdowns of voter turnout are yet available, PoliticsPA, a political Web site, shows that Street's voters turned out in force as well.

According to its voter turnout feed, seven of the top 11 precincts with higher than expected turnouts were primarily Democratic ones.

Even in defeat, Katz spoke of hope for the future of Philadelphia.

"Philadelphia has had some very severe strains imposed on it.... I urge the mayor and I urge all the leaders of the city to take a step back and take a look at us," he said.

"They are the people's servants, and the people need help," he added.

"Do not walk out of here with your head bowed," Katz told his supporters at the end of his concession speech. "We have a lot to be proud of, we have a lot to look forward to, and if we stick together, we'll get a lot done."

In contrast to 1999, the Katz campaign had a strong Election Day plan, said Tierney, who did not blame the loss on lack of effort.

"There was nothing left in the locker room," he said. "The campaign feels very, very good that it did everything it could do."

Katz's supporters expressed more disappointment about Philadelphia's future than about their candidate's loss.

"I think Sam Katz would have brought a fluidity and dynamicism to the city that would have done a lot for economic revitalization," Katz supporter Edmond Collier said.

"I'm a registered Democrat," he added. "And I'm about to register Republican" because of Katz.

"Sam is a new Republican," another supporter said. "He appeals to constituents that the traditional Republican party could never even approach. He's the kind of Republican that we need in the party."

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