News Analysis: Rendell's key to Nov. 5 success

Democrat Ed Rendell was not supposed to have a 20 point lead in the race for governor the day before the general election.

In fact, he wasn't supposed to make it to the general election.

Bob Casey, heir to his father's political legacy, centrist from western Pennsylvania, was going to demolish Fast Eddie, that wheeling, dealing, big-city liberal, in the Democratic primary. Pennsylvania Democrats, a conservative lot, would never go for Rendell, an Ivy Leaguer from Philadelphia, a city which hasn't produced the state's governor in 90 years.

So said the pundits.

But now, Election Day is one day away, and the state may be staring at a Rendell governorship. The former mayor and Penn alumnus has a huge lead in the polls on Republican Mike Fisher. Unless all of southeastern Pennsylvania is covered in five feet of snow tomorrow, he probably won't lose.

So how did this happen?

In a word: Rendell.

Political experts say this election was never about Casey or Fisher, whom most people seem to find agreeable and competent but, frankly, a little boring. One columnist referred to the prospect of a Casey-Fisher race as "a mayonnaise sandwich on white."

No, this race was always about Rendell.

"The question was whether he could tell the Philadelphia story to enough voters to convince them that the Philadelphia miracle was in large part brought about by his own skills," says Terry Madonna, head of Millersville University's Center for Politics and Public Affairs.

On the eve of Election Day, the answer to that question seems to be an emphatic "yes."

Rendell tells the Philadelphia story -- the tale of how the city changed for the better during his eight years as mayor -- every chance he gets. He talks about it at campaign stops and with reporters. He has answered almost every debate question with "Well, when I was mayor of Philadelphia...."

And voters have been responding to Rendell's Philadelphia message, which is one of leadership and expertise in governing. According to the most recent Keystone Poll, they feel Rendell has the most experience and the best vision for Pennsylvania.

"There isn't any doubt that Rendell turns his biggest liability into his biggest asset," Madonna says.

According to Penn Political Science Professor Henry Teune, Fisher has not done nearly enough to convince the rest of the state that a Philadelphian has no place in the governor's mansion.

"What [Rendell] basically did is intimidate Fisher into not mentioning it," Teune says. "Fisher should have run on that issue right from the beginning."

In addition to that Philadelphia liability-turned-asset, Rendell has a financial advantage. As former chairman of the Democratic National Committee, he has been able to rake in tremendous amounts of money -- which allows him to take his Philadelphia story to even more Pennsylvanians.

"Normally, Republicans would have a financial advantage, and they don't in this race," Penn Political Science Department Chairman Jack Nagel says.

And experts say Rendell's prodigious fundraising skills can be attributed to his personality, which Annenberg Public Policy Center Fellow David Eisenhower calls "irresistible and infectious." Rendell is a friendly, likable man with an unusual ability to connect with people -- which has made wealthy individuals throw money at him.

Eisenhower compares Rendell to a football coach -- a gregarious, back-slapping guy who uses the force of his personality to lead his team. Central Pennsylvanians may not like candidates from Philadelphia, but they sure do like football.

"Football coaches play well in Peoria," Eisenhower says. "You can be a big-city guy, but if you're a football coach... [you'll] do well in the football sections of the state. Rendell is not running as an intellectual, he's running as a motivator, as a football coach."

Others have compared him to someone who might rate even better than a football coach: the reigning I-feel-your-pain champion of political campaigning.

"He's very much like Bill Clinton in his campaign style," Madonna says. "He makes you believe he cares about your problems and will do something about them.

"I don't think there's a Pennsylvania politician in my lifetime who does it as well."

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