Polls show Rendell has big advantage in race for gov.

With only five weeks to go until election day, the latest poll numbers do not bode well for Republican gubernatorial candidate Mike Fisher.

The Keystone Poll, arguably Pennsylvania’s most respected political poll, shows Fisher trailing Democrat Ed Rendell by 15 points, while a lower-profile survey conducted by KDKA-TV in Pittsburgh indicates that Rendell’s lead is closer to 23 points.

Perhaps even more ominous for Fisher, the Keystone Poll shows that only 50 percent of Republican voters surveyed said they will vote for him.

Before this week, polls showed the overall spread between the two candidates to be anywhere between seven and 15 points.

Rendell, the former mayor of Philadelphia and a Penn alumnus, has created a “Rendell phenomenon,” said political analyst Terry Madonna, who heads up the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Millersville University.

“It’s almost as if Fisher’s running against an incumbent,” Madonna said.

The Keystone Poll indicates that 45 percent of registered Pennsylvania voters support Rendell, while 30 percent support Fisher and 24 percent are undecided. Among undecided voters, 52 percent are leaning toward Rendell and 35 percent favor Fisher.

The KDKA poll — which is conducted by a computer using interactive voice recognition technology and is therefore less reliable — found that 58 percent of registered voters support Rendell and 35 percent support Fisher.

Although Fisher, who is the state attorney general, could still pull off a victory, the chances of an upset are slim, according to several political experts.

“There’s a month to go, and lots can happen in a month, but barring some incredible scandal and drastic faux pas, one would think that with these kind of numbers… that it looks very good [for Rendell],” Political Science Department Chairman Jack Nagel said.

“With five weeks to go, [Fisher’s] odds are looking longer and longer,” said Keystone pollster Berwood Yost, director of Millersville University’s Center for Opinion Research. Fisher “really isn’t showing any movement,” Yost said.

Madonna said that Fisher will not be able to make significant gains in Philadelphia and its suburbs, the state’s densest region.

“Rendell’s base in the southeast is impregnable,” Madonna said, adding that Fisher needs to “scurry around scrounging for votes in less populous parts of the state.”

But according to Yost, Rendell’s lead should narrow somewhat as the election nears and Fisher coaxes traditionally Republican voters back into the fold.

“I wouldn’t write him off yet,” Yost said. “Mike Fisher [is] a hard worker and he’s not going to give up.”

Some, though, say they believe Fisher should just call it quits right now.

Conservative CNN Crossfire co-host Bob Novak, for instance, suggested Wednesday that state Republicans should kick Fisher off the ballot and run Gov. Mark Schweiker, whom the polls say could easily defeat Rendell.

Analysts attributed Rendell’s big lead over Fisher to factors ranging from his performance in the Sept. 19 gubernatorial debate to voter dissatisfaction with Fisher’s negative television advertisements.

Nagel said that Rendell “came across very much better” in the debate.

“The visuals weren’t flattering to Fisher,” he said. “He’s not as vivid or as forceful a personality.”

Yost said many of those he polled may have been fed up with Fisher’s attack ads, which portray a Philadelphia taxi driver criticizing Rendell’s record as mayor.

“They think he’s been pretty negative and unfair in his advertising,” Yost said.

Fisher’s campaign attributes Rendell’s big lead to his name recognition. Rendell faced a tough primary fight against Auditor General Bob Casey Jr. and spent a considerable amount of money last spring to get his name and message out, while Fisher started running ads in August.

“With our campaign really being only a month old, [people are] still learning about Mike Fisher,” spokeswoman Kelly Phiel said.

But Rendell spokesman Dan Fee scoffed at that idea.

“What’s most telling about [the Keystone] poll is that in areas where Ed Rendell’s known the most, he’s liked the best and in areas where Mike Fisher is known the most, Ed Rendell is liked the best,” Fee said.

About the Series

Every Friday until the gubernatorial elections in November, The Daily Pennsylvanian will run an article analyzing the major issues on the minds of Pennsylvania voters and how the major candidates are addressing them.

As polls change, as the advertisements start to heat up, the DP will focus on the angle coming from each candidate’s campaign and the perspective provided by political experts and non-partisan analysts, as well as how ordinary Pennsylvanians react to the messages of Ed Rendell and Mike Fisher.

And as the campaigns progress and Nov. 5 approaches, share your thoughts at the dailypennsylvanian.com

gubernatorial race forum.

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