A FRONT ROW VIEW: Alabama's good-but Penn will be victorious

The Madness is back. The Madness that is March in the crazy world of college basketball. There is nothing in all of sports quite like it. It has new favorites, it has new sleepers. There will be new winners, there will be new losers. This is what makes The Madness so special. On the court and in the office pool, nothing is certain and nothing is safe. There are statistics and there are trends, but there are no guarantees. There is no logic -- there is only The Madness. This is the rule, and there are no exceptions. But something has changed, for there can be no method to The Madness. There is a new variable which has greatly altered the mix for Penn fans. They are not just excited and confident, as in the past -- they are nervous. They are nervous because Penn will start five seniors against Alabama. Shawn Trice, Scott Kegler, Eric Moore, Matt Maloney and Jerome Allen. They are nervous because Penn very well could lose to Alabama. If it does, these five players will never wear the Red and Blue again. It is a paradox of The Madness. Experience has created confidence, but at the same time it has also created fear. For the Penn hoops faithful, it is a paradox most unkind. All is not lost, however. The first-round clash with the Tide will not be the last for Penn's five seniors. The end will surely come quickly -- too quickly for most Quakers fans -- but it not will not come tomorrow night in Baltimore. Penn will beat Alabama. How can I say this? There are several reasons? 1. The Penn backcourt. It has been said over and over again. It's probably been said too often, but that doesn't make it any less true. Allen and Maloney comprise one of the best guard tandems in America. They have proven countless times their ability to execute to perfection. Just look at Penn's victory over St. John's in December, when Maloney dominated the first half and Allen the second. With the exception of the UMass game, Penn has either breezed to victory or gone down to the last possession in each and every contest this year. Maloney and Allen are the reason. They can shoot, pass, defend and handle the ball. Both of them. They can control a game, and their best effort was last year in The Madness against Nebraska. They will control the tempo and not let the Tide run. They will make their teammates better and help Penn win. 2. The Alabama backcourt. There's an old saying that guard play wins tourney games. So if Penn's backcourt is this good, the Alabama guards will need to come up big. They're not good enough. Consider the 'Bama starters, senior Artie Griffin and junior point guard Marvin Orange. Griffin shot just 36 percent from the floor this year, and Orange was even worse at 31 percent. Compare that with 43 percent for Allen and 46 percent for Maloney. Allen and Maloney totaled 39 more assists than the Alabama duo, and they played four less games. Orange and Griffin have been torched by opposing guards all year. Mississippi State's Darryl Wilson burned them for 18 points in one game and 35 in another. Martyn Norris of Auburn tallied 12 points, 10 rebounds and six assists. Katu Davis of Georgia hit for 25 points, seven boards and two assists. Louisiana State's Ronnie Henderson poured in 40 points. Unless you've been living in a cave, you know none of these guys can hold a candle to Maloney and Allen. Which certainly doesn't bode well for Alabama. 3. Dr. Jeckyll & Mr. Tide. Alabama fans will point to the Crimson Tide's 18-point victory on the road against defending national champion Arkansas. But the truth is you never know which Alabama team will show up. It could be that team, but it could also be the one that somehow lost by 13 at home to LSU. The Tide has been plagued by inconsistency all year. It beat Mississippi State once, but lost to Vanderbilt and Georgia. There is no reason to assume Alabama will bring its best game to Baltimore. It's very possible the opposite will happen, especially against an unranked Ivy League team. 4. The frontcourts. Everyone knows about Alabama's frontcourt of Jamal Faulkner, Jason Caffey and Antonio McDyess. The Tide has more strength up front than most teams in the country. Many have said that Penn's frontcourt will be overmatched. But people have said that before. They said it before the Michigan game, and Shawn Trice had 11 rebounds and Eric Moore scored 18 points. In a near-miss at Villanova, Penn adjusted after a horrid start and held center Jason Lawson to just three points in the second. Penn was whacked by Lou Roe and Marcus Camby, but that is the exception and not the rule. Trice has been unstoppable lately, and junior Tim Krug continues to provide intensity and versatility off the bench. Add Moore's heart and desire and junior Ira Bowman's explosiveness, and the Penn frontcourt will shock some people. 5. Cupcake City. Everyone knows the Ivies can't match the SEC when it comes to level of competition and talent. They can't come close. But let's face it, you play conference foes once or twice each year, so you already know them. The true tests are strong non-conference games. Penn lost close ones to 'Nova, Temple and St. Joe's. Alabama beat up on patsies like Florida International, Florida A&M;, Central Florida and Central Connecticut State. Which experience will prove more valuable in a tight NCAA Tournament game? It's not a hard question to answer. Penn's will. So there you have it. A few reasons why 12th-seeded Penn will get by fifth-seeded Alabama tomorrow night. With all the hype and a tiny Vegas line, this is anything but your typical 5-12 matchup. The upset should surprise no one when it happens. Especially in the world of The Madness. Lee Goldsmith is a College junior from Huntingdon Valley and a sports writer for The Daily Pennsylvanian.

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