Gregorian lectures on Soviet breakup

An authoritarian government will soon rule the Soviet Union despite its apparent breakup into independent republics, Brown University President and former University Provost Vartan Gregorian predicted during a speech yesterday. Gregorian, who is of Armenian descent, said policies intended to solve the problems created by nationalism have instead caused its further rise and is leading to the breakup of the U.S.S.R. "Unfortunately, I don't see democracy as the future of the U.S.S.R." he told over 100 people attending the lecture. "We will see great civil strife and the promise of nationalism will be unfulfilled." In his hour-long speech, Gregorian said the U.S.S.R. is "disintegrating" because the ruling ideology which held the Soviet Union together has collapsed. "The Soviet Union was intended to be a society which was nationalist in form and socialist in substance, but those policies led to nationalism," he said. "The victory of socialism has been exposed as a myth." The demographics of the Soviet Union have contributed to the rise of nationalism and now prevent the U.S.S.R. from acting as a single entity. There are 100 nationalities in the country and 95 percent of these ethnic groups have national territories. Gregorian said that only 15 percent of the Soviets live outside the area which could be designated their "national homeland." Officially, there are 50 legal entities which constitute the Soviet Union, the largest being the 12 republics existing after the failed Soviet coup. These different units make it difficult for the U.S.S.R. to make comprehensive policy decisions under the best of circumstances, Gregorian said. Now, according to Gregorian, "every republic has either asserted sovereignty, declared independence or has declared their intention to form separate republics." "All the autonomous zones and republics have been a nightmare for Soviet planners," he said. Each republic's constitution provides for secession if the people deem it neccesary, but the constitution and reality are not always the same. "Each republic's constitution says that secession is permitted, but in a strange twist, once you consider seceeding you are putting the bourgeousie ahead of the proletariat, which is not allowed," he said. Gregorian said Gorbachev did not use the army to stop republics from seceeding because this action would have contradicted his policies of glastnost and perestroika. According to Gregorian, Gorbachev underestimated the strength of nationalism. "Nationalism in the Soviet Union is emerging in its most potent raw form since the 19th century," he said. "Gorbachev has opened up a Pandora's box and released two dangerous phenomena -- dissatisfaction among both the intelligentsia and the workers." Gregorian said he fears a backlash against the Russian republic, which makes up 52 percent of the population and has traditionally been the dominant republic in the union. Russian signs, he said, are already being torn down in Georgia. "There is the danger of pogroms against Russians," he said. Gregorian followed his speech with a question and answer period and he "humbly" apologized to anyone who might have disagreed with his opinions. "If I did not speak wisely, at least I spoke loudly," he said with a broad smile. The speech, entitled "The Rise and Fall of Soviet Nationality Policies," was the Wistar Institute's 1991 Art Stern Memorial Lecture. Philip Arthur Stern, for whom the annual lecture is named, served as Research Administrator at the Wistar Institute from 1958 to 1965. Wistar Institute Director Giovanni Rovera proudly welcomed the audience to the annual event. "We choose this moment to remove our eyes from the bottom of test tubes and cages and look up to see what is going on in the outside world," he said. Gregorian joined the University faculty in 1972 as a professor of history. He became the University's first Dean of Arts and Sciences and was named provost in 1978. He left the University in 1981 to become president of the New York Public Library and in January 1989 he was appointed President of Brown University. Wistar Institute Professor Leonard Warren said that he was glad Gregorian was selected to speak. "Dr. Gregorian is someone we all know very well. We hold him in the highest esteem and with the greatest affection . . . It was a very sad day when he left our community." College sophomore Chris Neil said that he was impressed with Gregorian's speech. "He displayed a detailed understanding of the specific issues that are facing the Soviet Union today," he said. Twin brother Wharton sophomore David Neil said he enjoyed the lecture but that he wished Gregorian had talked about what unified he U.S.S.R. "Gregorian revealed some of the potentially divisive forces in the Soviet Union, especially nationalism, but failed to express the possible unifying forces in the Soviet Union," he said.

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