​I wouldn’t be surprised if President Barack Obama were secretly daring Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz.

​No, I’m not one of those extremists who think Obama’s an American-hating Muslim. But Obama has so much to gain in 2012 from an Iranian misstep.

​Let’s say Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz. Its ploy will result in the Strait being reopened weeks’ time.

​Iran can show off its naval prowess as some sort of intimidation factor, but it’s a somewhat futile attempt — it’s boasting about its navy to the largest naval power in the world, the United States.

The West isn’t too concerned about reopening the Strait. The biggest concern is that Iran will launch short-range missiles to delay efforts to reopen the Strait. That is the strategy rogue groups use on the Gaza Strip, not a grand national military strategy. And while missiles can be annoying, if Iran followed any of the events in Libya, it’ll know the West is fairly handy at taking out missile sites, even temporary or mobile ones.

​Further, like in Libya, the US wouldn’t have to work alone to reopen the Strait. American lives may be risked, but with a comprehensive strategy, the death toll would be minimal.

​In short, Obama would have confronted Iran without provoking it (at least from the West’s standpoint, which — for the US election — is what matters). He would have commanded a short and successful mission, and he would have restored gas prices.

​And the blowback wouldn’t be that big. Here’s the list of countries that think closing the Strait is a good idea (or perhaps a good practical joke): Iran.

​Here’s the list of countries that oppose it: every country that’s not Iran.

​Even countries like Iraq have told Iran not to close the Strait. Saudi Arabia has told Iran the same thing and has also said it would increase oil production to stabilize prices should Iran close the Strait.

​Even in a region of the world in which the US has few allies, a US effort to reopen the Strait would be popular.

​Iran can close the Strait, but it doesn’t have the guns or the support to keep it closed. If it wants to make actual threats, it should enrich uranium a bit more. But doing that will just cause Israel to invade it.

​Which brings me to my final point. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta believes Israel will attack Iran sometime over the next few months. Such a preemptive strike would make Israel and the US appear to be aggressors and would bring about an amalgam of problems.

Should Iran, however, give any more reason for the West to attack it, Obama has to worry about the fallout of attacking Iran a bit less.

​Iran’s giving the US issues to worry about right now. If it acts out just a bit more, it also makes it simpler for the US to deal with those concerns.

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