Analysis | How foreign policy may hinder Obama’s reelection
· February 6, 2012, 4:04 pm
As President Barack Obama’s reelection campaign has trumpeted successes abroad — such as Osama Bin Laden’s death, a crippled al-Qaeda and the end to the Iraq War — as examples of Obama’s leadership, new challenges abroad threaten Obama’s near-perfect foreign policy record.
Perhaps the biggest challenge is the increased tensions between Israel and Iran. Amidst new speculation that Israel may launch a preemptive strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, questions surround the Obama administration’s response.
It’s certainly a delicate issue. The Obama administration certainly does not want to be dragged into a potential conflict with Iran and thus will continue to pursue a strategy of peaceful diplomacy.
However, the administration wants to maintain America’s image as a loyal friend of Israel. By not standing up for Israel, Obama risks providing ammunition for the eventual Republican nominee who will try to seize Jewish support that Obama overwhelmingly won in 2008.
There are more challenges confronting Obama’s foreign policy. Iraq has seen an increase in violence since the American withdrawal, which suggests that the Iraq War’s end was premature.
Afghanistan faces a similar dilemma. While U.S. Marines are already being transitioned out of a combat role, statistics from the past five years suggest the fighting is worsening.
In addition, Saturday’s collapse of the U.N. Security Council resolution calling for Syrian President Bashar Assad to step down reflects a failure of the United States and the international community to resolve a crisis that has become more deadly every week.
Without stability in Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq (not to mention Yemen and Egypt), terrorist groups, such as Al-Qaeda, will regroup and spread their influence more freely. And any retaliation from Iran after an Israeli strike may shatter peace in the volatile region.
Thus, these next few months for Obama are critical. While Obama counts on a reemerging economy to bring him a second term, choosing to rest on prior foreign policy achievements — and not to make strong, authoritative decisions abroad — may hurt his candidacy.
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