In a back room of St. Mary's Episcopal Church on Locust Walk last night, Lee Ann Draud was dishing out meals for the needy, just like she has been doing since 1984.

But within the last few months, she's noticed a change.

"It happened real fast -- the numbers shot up after September 11," said Draud, the meal coordinator for the University City Hospitality Coalition. "It was really hard to predict."

A softening economy, perhaps worsened by recent terrorist attacks, has caused concern among the city's soup kitchens and homeless shelters. Many are already at or near capacity, and increasing numbers of layoffs and cutbacks can only mean more people to care for.

"We're just beginning to see the effect," said Sister Mary Scullion, executive director of Project H.O.M.E., a city-wide group that provides the homeless with outreach, medical care and education. "The people on the lowest economic rung are impacted in a quicker and more significant way because they don't have that cushion or safety net that most people would have for themselves or their families."

Some homeless service providers say they are already feeling the effects of a population in need.

"The numbers are very high," said Ernie Thomas, intake supervisor for the Eliza Shirley House on Arch Street. "It can be for so many different reasons -- the change of seasons, lack of jobs, welfare reform -- but we have definitely seen an influx of families this year."

Rob Hess, the city's deputy managing director, says that there has been an "uptick" in the number of homeless living on Center City's streets, but says that accurate numbers of that change are hard to come by, as the homeless are a "moving target."

Although he said that the homeless population in Center City seemed an "awful, awful lot higher" than normal in October, Center City District Police Substation Commanding Officer Bill Schmid admitted that the official count on Nov. 1 was less than that taken on Sept. 1.

"It all depends on what time you're walking around downtown," Schmid said, explaining that he could walk down a street in mid-afternoon and not see any homeless people, but then walk by the Academy of Music in the evening, before or after a show, and see many.

"They come out of the woodwork and 15 minutes after the show breaks, they're gone," Schmid said. "Make no mistakes about it -- they run it like a business. They're like field marshals about it."

Lt. Fred Carbonara, commanding office for the University City District Police substation, said that this area has not seen an increase in homelessness. He attributed this to the fact that many of the residents in the area work for Penn or other universities, whose employees are not as subject to layoffs as those in the private sector.

To a small extent, some of those seeking shelter in Philadelphia are refugees from New York City, whose social service system is currently overwhelmed in caring for the families of those affected by the terrorist attacks. One homeless shelter reported that several unemployed actors from the Big Apple have turned up for their services.

Dwayne Wharton, manager of social services for the American Red Cross, also said that the loss of a family's primary breadwinner from the Sept. 11 tragedies has caused some people to be without income to pay the rent.

Wharton also said that the Red Cross is providing assistance for a year to such families to keep them housed.

Research has shown that the employment rate is a "significant predictor" of homelessness, according to Penn Social Work Professor Dennis Culhane. And Hess said that recent losses in service sector jobs at the airport and at several downtown hotels have resulted in increased homelessness in Philadelphia.

"Those kind of jobs belong to families and individuals that are just begging by, and it puts them in a very precarious situation in regards to their housing, and their ability to eat, frankly," Hess said, adding that few of these people have the recommended six months of savings to tide them over between jobs.

Officials also face the troubling prospect of dealing with a significant number of homeless people early next year. In March, 8,500 people will see their five-year period of welfare assistance expire, unless the state policy is changed.

"Even if 1,000 of those people become homeless over the course of the year, we just don't have the capacity to handle that," said Martie Bernicker, a policy analyst for the People's Emergency Center in West Philadelphia, whose 107 beds are almost always filled. "That's putting too much pressure on the homeless system."

The problem of providing for additional homeless people is compounded by the fact that donations to shelters and soup kitchens have slowed down after Sept. 11.

"People are going to want to donate to the cause that's more immediate, the one that's really tugging at the heartstrings," said Amanda McCuskey, an outreach worker with the Philadelphia Committee to End Homelessness.