Delegates, not voters, historically hold balance of power in Pa. primary

After years of falling near the end of the presidential primary cycle, the April 26 Pennsylvania primary is finally relevant. Seventy-one Republican and 210 Democratic delegates will be on the line when Pennsylvania votes on Tuesday and, this time, their votes will be crucial.

The delegates’ votes, that is.

This year and in past years, it’s been more important for Republican candidates to woo delegates than voters. Someone like Republican front-runner and 1968 Wharton graduate Donald Trump who can secure the numbers in a popular vote may not win many delegates if the other candidates have been making the rounds to urge delegates to vote for them.

This type of thing has happened in the past, where popular vote mattered little. Incumbent president Gerald Ford and presidential candidate Ronald Reagan were so close in the 1976 primaries that Reagan decided to choose a running mate from Pennsylvania, Sen. Richard Schweiker, in the hope that he would help him take Pennsylvanian delegates away from Ford. But Ford also had his own Pennsylvania ally, Drew Lewis, who headed the state’s delegation at the 1976 Republican National Convention. Four years later, Lewis executed the same strategy for Reagan, who won most of the Pennsylvania delegates in the primary even though he lost the popular vote by 100,000 votes to George H.W. Bush.

Former President George W. Bush won the Pennsylvania primary in 2000, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in 2008 and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in 2012, making it historically a good predictor of who the eventual nominee will be, though only time will tell if that will remain the trend this year.

Though the Democratic primary is more straightforward, history also may have an impact on the outcome this year. The Clintons have historically been popular in Pennsylvania. Former President Bill Clinton won 56.5 percent of the vote in the 1992 primary and Pennsylvania has voted consistently for Democrats in the general election since Reagan’s reelection in 1984. Hillary Clinton, whose grandparents and father both hailed from Scranton, Pa. is also popular among Pennsylvania Democrats. She beat Barack Obama in in the Pennsylvania primary in 2008, and is leading in many of the polls.

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