Hurricane Joaquin could hit Penn's campus in upcoming days

Whether it’s a hurricane, tropical storm or nor’easter, a significant storm will affect much of the East Coast in the next couple of days. 

It’s been quite a while since we’ve seen a hurricane of this magnitude sitting in the Atlantic Ocean. Currently a Category 4 storm as of Oct. 1 at 2 p.m., Joaquin (pronounced Wa-Keen) shows no sign of letting up in intensity until later in its life cycle. With sustained winds of 130 mph, it is wreaking major havoc on the Bahamas before doing a complete 180 degrees and progressing northward towards the East Coast. The last hurricane to reach that magnitude in the Atlantic basin was Hurricane Sandy in 2012. 

Of course, we all know how Sandy panned out for our area. However, that isn’t to say that Joaquin will be like that historic storm. It’s much more complicated than just looking at analogs and comparing the tracks and intensities of similar systems prior. In fact, only three days before it is expected to come very close to our area, meteorologists like myself are struggling to determine its exact track and intensity.

Although many unanswered questions remain, we do know that there could be significant impacts that are notrelated to Hurricane Joaquin. Regardless of how close it comes to our region this weekend, significant rainfall is expected, along with coastal flooding. We could see upwards of 3-6 inches of rain by Tuesday. This rain is coming from a different system that is located in the southeast United States, but is not directly related to Joaquin. Most of this rain will come before Saturday. 

On top of that, Joaquin may cause violent waves off the Jersey Shore that could lead to significant beach erosion. For that reason, Gov. Chris Christie, as of Thursday afternoon, has declared a State of Emergency, mainly for people down the shore who should be monitoring this situation very closely.

Over the last 24-48 hours, we’ve seen a wide range of possibilities as to where this system could go. Every one of the global computer models have portrayed three distinct possibilities for Joaquin’s track. Let me break them down. Remember, this is subject to change!

Scenario #1: Landfall at Outerbanks (10% Chance)

If you had asked me on Wednesday morning where I thought landfall for Joaquin would be, I would’ve said between the Outerbanks and southeast Virginia. All of the computer models that we look at were pointing towards that solution … except the European model! With the track record of a world-star athlete, the European has been regarded as the world’s most reliable computer model. But, when all other guidance points to a solution away from that, it is hard to argue for the Euro. It has consistently shown Joaquin moving northward, but hooking away from the East Coast rather than ever making landfall. And, once again, it is looking more and more likely that the European’s original solution will pan out as the other models have shifted towards a more Out to Sea solution. The reason for this is in the way the system that will bring us rain ahead of Joaquin interacts with the hurricane itself and how Joaquin will be as it moves northward. From the start, it appears that the European has had a better grasp on the depiction of these two features because of its superior computing power.

Scenario #2: Landfall around Long Island (30% Chance)

The next scenario that seems to be a middle ground — and what the National Hurricane Center seems to be liking — is Joaquin making its way up the East Coast and just grazing eastern Long Island before moving northeast and Out to Sea. Notice how the cone on Monday and Tuesday morning is still relatively wide, which indicates a large realm of uncertainty.

Scenario #3: No US Landfall & Out to Sea (60% Chance)

Finally, the most likely scenario as of now is Joaquin moving Out to Sea with not too much in the way of impacts other than some larger swells. That isn’t to say that we won’t see a significant amount of rain and flooding. This would just mean that the impacts on top of it would be minimal. Right now, I am leaning towards this solution.

Although, keep in mind the track will determine how significant the impacts could be, and it may not be set in stone until tomorrow. The closer to the coast it gets, the more hazardous the impacts could be.

Elyas Tecle is a College freshman and meteorologist reporting on weather for The Daily Pennsylvanian.

A version of this article first appeared on www.delvalweather.com on Oct. 1.

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